Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased a slight forecast for the growth rates of Azerbaijan GDP for 2021 – up to 2.2% from previous expectations of 1.9%, and does not exclude the growth of the Azerbaijani economy in 2022 at the level of 2.5% – It follows from the “Asian Development Outlook 2021 Update” published on Wednesday. The main excerpts from the report leads the IA Turan.
The Government of Azerbaijan for 2021 predicts GDP growth at 4.6% (previously expected an increase of 3.4%), and for 2022 – 4%.
In an explanation of ADB in its updated forecasts for 2021-22, it is indicated that in Azerbaijan due to high global prices for hydrocarbons became “higher incomes from oil and gas, there was an increase in household incomes and internal demand, and this update has increased the situation Expectations for GDP growth for 2021 and retained it for 2022 years. “
Positive in the current year ADB calls retail sales in the oil sector, a significant increase in the production sphere due to the growth of food, processing and petrochemistry. In the service sector, there was an increase in the restoration of transportation and retail trade.
“growth in agriculture accelerated due to the growth of agricultural crops and an increase in livestock.” – notes ADB.
According to the Bank estimates, the decline in investment in large oil and gas projects affects the country’s investment in the country.
At the same time, the net exports of Azerbaijan increases due to high global prices for hydrocarbons, and imports began to fall.
“By mid-August 2021, 23% of the population of the country received a second dose of vaccine from COVID-19, which had a positive effect on the economic revival of Azerbaijan,” the ADB report was noted.
It is curious that forecasts for GDP growth in Azerbaijan from ADB are the lowest among the countries of the South Caucasus, and in Georgia, the Bank expects 6% in 2021 by 6% and 6.5% in 2022, and in Armenia – 3% in 2021 and 3.5% – in 2022 (!).
As for inflation, the Bank believes that average annual inflation in Azerbaijan in 2021 will be 4.5% (the April forecast is 3.5%), but will slow down to 3% in 2022 (maintaining previous expectations).
The government speaks of inflation in 4.9% in 2021 and 3.6% for 2022.
“Inflation accelerated to 4.3% year in annual terms in the first half of 2021 compared with 3% in January-June 2020. By 4.9% in the current year, price for food, by 3.9% On other goods and by 3.5% for services. The main drivers of inflation are the growth of transportation costs, an increase in fuel tariffs. The exchange rate of Manat remained unchanged. Despite higher inflation in 2021, the interest rate of the Central Bank remained at level 6, 25% since December 2020 (changed in early September to 6.5%). All these nuances are taken into account when forecasting inflation for 2021-22 “- noted in Documents ADB.
In Armenia, inflation in 2021 is expected to be 2.5%, for 2022 the forecast of 3%, and in Georgia ADB expects inflation at 3.5%, in 2022 – 4%.