with the end of the influence of El Nigno and the gradual increase in the influence of La-Nigne, the probability of record temperatures in the last 6 months of 2024 is lower compared to the first 6 months. The director of the Center for the Study of Climate and Politics at the University of Brasichi Levent Kournaz.
According to the Copernicus Copernicus Change Service, the European Union (EU), in June of this year, the average global temperature was 16.66 degrees, which is 0.67 degrees higher than the average for 1991-2020 and 0.14 degrees above the previous the hottest June recorded in 2023.
In June, the temperature record was broken for 13 months in a row, and the average global temperature over the past 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024) reached the highest level in the history of observations, exceeding the average indicator for 1991-2020. by 0.76 degrees and an indicator of the pre-industrial level of 1850-1900 by 1.64 degrees.
Kurnaz said that since the beginning of 2024, 127 days out of 182 were recorded as the hottest.
He noted that the first half of the year was the hottest six months in the history of the world.
“compared with the average indicator for 1970-2000, the first six months of 2024 were 0.9 degrees warmer, and each of the last 13 months that we survived broke the record of the hottest month. If we compare the first 6 months , then the previous record was in 2016, and 2024 exceeded 2016 by 0.19 degrees, ”Kurnaz explained.
According to him, due to climate change, the average temperature in the world does not increase linearly, but more or less than expected, due to many phenomena occurring in the atmosphere.
“Summer of 2024 may become the second or third warmer summer”
Kurnaz explains that El Nigno, whose action ended in early July, is directly related to temperature records of the last 13 months.
“As of the beginning of July, El Nigno’s effect ended, and we slowly go to La-Ninier, so in the next months the records beaten over the past 13 months will not continue. Despite the fact that from this moment we will see again hot times, we will not be able to use the word “record temperature” too often, ”he said.
Kournase suggests that the summer of 2024 may become the second or third hottest summer.
“In Turkey, sudden and strong rains will increase”
Kurnaz said that it was too early to make a forecast for the whole 2024, but he warned that the countries of the Mediterranean basin, including Turkey, will suffer greatly from climate change, the temperature will reach a level close to the deserted, the amount of sediment will decrease significantly, and the dry days will increase, a sudden and strong increase in rains is expected.