It is already obvious that Azerbaijan covered the next wave of coronavirus. In many published haqqin.az materials on the topic of Kovida, an inexorable pattern was carried out: the fewer quarantine restrictions, less masculine mode, social distance and other measures, the more infection, more load on the hospitals. And vice versa, the more restrictions and quarantine – the less Kovida.
But in the new Pandemic wave there is one important difference from the former -o squeak, jumping through bumps and bumps, suitable by anti-recreak, the process of mass vaccination is still moving. To date, immunization is the only remedy to get rid of the last 530 days of the Covenacle.
How and when Koronavirus is defeated in the world, HaqQin.Az talked with a famous American scientist in the field of bioinformatics and molecular biology, director of the department of professional services in the leading scientific edition of the world Elsevier Anton Yuryev
– according to official data, on August 23, in Azerbaijan of 10 million people, two doses of vaccines have already received more than 2 million 457 thousand people. What are the latest assessments of scientists on this account – how much should people vaccinate to achieve a collective immunity threshold?
– apparently, the pandemic went to the decline, and the wave of “Delta” -Shtamma will most likely become the last. But she, as previous waves, also thoroughly resorting health and will take someone’s lives. Indian strain “Delta” is 4 times less deadly than the initial Wuhan “Alpha”. But “Delta” is much easier to transmit. This means that the majority of those who have not yet had overdone or have not vaccinated, most likely, it is easy to converge and develop immunity. Thus, Delta will also develop a collective immunity in society. Although I still recommend everyone to develop T-cell immunity through vaccination, and not through the infection of a living virus.
Now specifically on the question. For different models, collective immunity develops when it has been gained 60-80% of the population. That is, 6-8 million Azerbaijanis must have immunity so that society as a whole felt safe. Two factors are affected on this figure, which is still difficult to simulate. First, the virus mutates (new strains appear), and therefore the effectiveness of the vaccine falls. If the strain of the PFizer is 80% for “alpha”, then this vaccine is effective against the “delta”. Secondly, many Azerbaijanis probably had already silent Coronavirus, not knowing it. After all, the pandemic has been almost two years old, and from the very beginning it was known that 10-20% of people have an asymptomatic disease. I think that 60-70% vaccination will ensure the safety of the population. While she will go, someone will gain immunity through a living virus infection.