Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting for the winter period, hoping that due to the cold in 2023, the level of support of Ukraine will decrease in the countries of the European Union. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of the War ISW.
According to ISW analysts, the Russian president, judging by some circumstances, is preparing for a long campaign with ordinary means, withholding the current captured territories and attempts to win new, and not to a sharp escalation, for example, in the form of the use of nuclear weapons or, conversely, to A truce. This is indicated, in particular, by Putin the “partial mobilization”.
“He paid for this mobilization a very high domestic political price in the form of a flight of hundreds of thousands of Russians to other countries, unprecedented protests and equally unprecedented criticism of the actions of the Russian military and Russian authorities. It makes sense to pay this price if Putin intends to continue the war and understands that it is necessary to immediately send reinforcements to Ukraine in order to keep the position before the new call is being reached and the situation in its favor will deploy the situation, ”the authors quoted the authors of the ISW reports.
In their opinion, Putin expects that now mobilized reservists will keep positions in Ukraine until the end of the spring thaw, and by that time the initial training of four to six months of the frequent calls that have begun now – and they can be sent to war, in New offensive.
At the same time, ISW believes, Putin believes that the cold winter and fuel deficiency will force some European countries to reduce assistance to Ukraine and become more flexible in relations with Russia.
American analysts recall that about a third of reservists (according to Putin himself) have already arrived in Ukraine, but this did not bring significant changes. The arrival of hastily prepared conscripts is also unlikely to lead to a turning point.
“But Putin does not seem to want to recognize these facts and, conversely, hopes that the reserves collected by such an unexpected price will truly change the situation,” the institution of study writes.