Analysis – can artificial intelligence technologies change international balance of forces?

Melik Tanbanka conducts studies on big data ethics and artificial intelligence at the University of Cambridge. She wrote for “Anadol analysis” about the importance of adaptation to artificial intelligence technologies, provided that the human factor will remain in the spotlight.

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On September 26, 1983, the Soviet Officer of the Cold War Stanislav Petrov served in the command post of the early warning system of the USSR Armed Forces. When the alarm announced the launch of a rocket from the United States of America, Petrov’s task was to immediately respond to the task of Petrov. However, he hesitated, realizing that the serious consequences of such actions could lead to the beginning of the Third World War and at the same time to stop life on Earth. Believing that this is a false alarm, Petrov decided not to report her and not to press the “Fire” button. These critical seconds that seemed eternity reflect the fragile balance between human judgments and automatic systems, especially when it comes to the possibility of a global catastrophe. In the end, it turned out that the system took the sun’s rays above the clouds for launching the rocket, which once again emphasizes the potential danger to rely only on automated technologies.

The strategic consequences of the use of artificial intelligence in military operations

Since the epochirus solution of Petrov, technology has developed significantly, but the concept of the arms race has remained unchanged. Today, countries invest significant funds in AI technology, recognizing their transforming potential in various sectors, including healthcare, industry and, most importantly, autonomous weapons systems.

However, disputes about the ethical and strategic consequences of the use of AI in military operations do not subside, in particular, on the transfer of powers to make decisions to automated systems as opposed to people-operators. The ongoing debates on this subject emphasize the need for a balanced approach to the development of AI, which would take into account the power of technology, but at the same time would recognize the importance of human judgment.

The question of whether the countries should implement national programs in the field of AI requires the consideration of the wider consequences of technological sovereignty. Just as the excellent weapon of Spanish conquistadors changed the dynamics of the development of the American continent in the 16th century, the advanced technologies of AI are able to influence geopolitical rivalry and strategies of national security in the modern era. Countries that do not have broad capabilities of AI risk facing their sovereignty and become vulnerable to operation or colonization, like historical examples of technological inequality that led to conquests. This indicates the need to invest in research and development in AI to protect the interests of national security.