Oil prices can significantly grow due to the situation around Ukraine. Bloomberg writes that JP Morgan analysts came to this opinion. The company simulated the situation in which the cost of barrel oil will reach $ 150.
“The existing geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine increases the risk of substantial growth in this quarter,” analysts consider them, their words lead to RBC.
If the price of oil reaches the said mark, GDP growth rates in the world in the first half of the year can be reduced to 0.9% (growth is now expected at 4.1%), economists are warned.
Inflation with this scenario can grow almost twice – up to 7.2% instead of the predicted 3%. This will force the Central Bank of the countries of the world to tighten the currency policy even more. “The shocks in the oil market in the past have repeatedly caused a cycled decline,” explained in JP Morgan.
Analysts noted that the influence of military conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not take into account their forecast if he occurs on the financial market, as well as the consequences of possible American sanctions against Moscow, which can be introduced in the case of its “invasion” in the neighboring country .
Earlier, Morgan Stanley predicted the growth of Brent oil to $ 100 per barrel by the third quarter of this year (before that, the Bank’s experts assumed that oil would increase only to $ 90 by this time). Among the reasons for possible growth, experts called the reduction of raw materials reserves and the predicted reduction in supply due to insufficient investments in the sector as environmental initiatives are promoted.