Improving the key rate at a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia in December is not predetermined, but the probability is very high, it follows from the materials of the Russian regulator.
“Although the increase in the key rate at the next meeting is not predetermined, its probability is very high. Therefore, it is necessary to repeat the tough signal that the Bank of Russia gave in September,” the message said.
The publication notes that “discussing the scale of the increase in the key rate at the next meeting, most of the participants advocated its increase to 21.00% per annum.” At the same time, proposals were expressed about a more moderate increase – up to 20.00% per annum and a more sharp increase – up to 22.00% per annum, ”the regulator noted.
The Central Bank reminded that according to the results of the discussion, the Board of Bank of Russia, on October 25, 2024, increased the key rate to 21.00% per annum from October 28, 2024 and gave a directed signal about a possible increase in the key rate at the next meeting.
“The trajectory of the key rate was increased in 2024-2026. In 2024, the average annual key rate will be 17.5% per annum. In 2025, it is expected in the range of 17.0-20.0% per annum, in 2026-12, 12, 12, 0-13.0% per annum, and in 2027 it will be in a neutral range of 7.5-8.5% per annum, “-follows from the materials of the Central Bank.
The increase in the key rate to 21% in October in the regulator was explained by non -replacement inflationary pressure and the fact that the growth of domestic demand is “significantly ahead” of the supply of goods and services.
“The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia expects that in the base scenario in 2025 a positive release of release will gradually decrease under the influence of the conducted monetary policy. At the same time, a decrease in inflation to the target will occur later. The inflation forecast is revised up in 2024-2025 In 2024, inflation will be 8.0-8.5%. It remained unchanged, ”he examines from the message.