Russia will be able to continue the war for about three years if there is no dramatic reduction in the Kremlin’s oil revenues. This conclusion was reached by Bloomberg analysts and one of the largest investment banks in the world – CITI, after analyzing the current level of income and expenses of the Russian Federation. The publication notes that Russia has a significant margin of strength largely thanks to the remnants of Russian reserves nominated in Chinese yuan – this part did not fall under Western sanctions and is still available to the Russian authorities.
Bloomberg analysts predict that maintaining the current status quo, that is, sales of Russian oil at a price of $ 50 per barrel, will allow the Russian authorities to continue military operations for three years, covering the budget deficit from the available sources.
Citibank gives a slightly more stringent forecast – 2.5 years relatively painless life for the Russian budget and, accordingly, the state.
Bloomberg analysts believe that yuan reserves can end in 2023 only if the average cost of Russian oil drops to a level of $ 25 per barrel or lower, the Citibank forecast is tougher, the bank analysts believe that Yuan will end in 2023 under the average annual annual annual annual annual. Oil price of $ 35 per barrel. At the same time, both pools of experts agree that finding the cost of oil in the range from $ 35 to $ 50 per barrel will allow the Russian authorities not to reduce expenses and take a year to pass quite painlessly. The cost of oil is higher than $ 60 per barrel will allow Moscow to even increase foreign exchange reserves, the agency notes.
The budget of the Russian Federation for 2023 Sverland based on the average annual oil price at $ 70 per barrel. Bloomberg notes that the Russian budget has not depended on oil revenues so much for about 10 years. According to the publication, in order to go out to zero, in 2022 the average annual price of oil was supposed to be at $ 104 per barrel, and in 2023 at $ 90 per barrel. The current price of Russian oil in foreign markets is $ 47.