Bloomberg agency called four probable scenarios of the further course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. If Russia and Ukraine retain the current strategies and the level of mobilization, the conflict may end by mid -2024. If the balance of power is seriously shifted in favor of Russia, the end of the war can be expected earlier – in mid -2023. If any of the parties refuses the war of exhaustion and switches to a more exhausting punishment strategy, a very long war may be the result. This is stated in the analysis of Bloomberg, which was at the disposal of “Agency”.
In order to determine the approximate duration of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Bloomberg used a model based on the analysis of military conflicts over the past 200 years. The agency stipulates that the model does not give the final answer to the question when the war ends.
According to the Bloomberg model, the average duration of modern wars is 15 months. Only less than 20% of conflicts last longer than 30 months, and most modern wars end in a peaceful agreement.
In total, the agency’s model allows three military strategies: 1) the maneuver strategy is attacks that are focused on the rapid seizure of the territory, and not the destruction of the enemy, 2) the exhaustion strategy, in which emphasis is placed on the seizure and destruction of enemy forces without compulsory quick promotion 3) the punishment strategy aimed at applying the enemy of the greatest damage to break his will to the struggle, while the parties do not necessarily enter into a direct collision, blows can be delivered by missiles or conducted by partisan methods.
Now the Russian army has passed from a maneuver strategy to exhaustion strategy. At the same time, elements of the punishment strategy appeared.
The most likely scenarios of further conflict: the first scenario suggests that the balance of power remains unchanged and the parties continue to adhere to the strategy for exhaustion. In this case, the war will last 30 months until mid -2024.
Second scenario: Russia completes the transition to a punishment strategy. With this scenario, the conflict can last forever.
Third scenario: Russia is full of mobilization. It can be politically risky. In Russia, there was no complete mobilization since the Second World War, but this will increase the gap in military potential and, thus, will reduce the predicted end of the conflict. According to this scenario, the expected ending of the conflict shifts in mid -2023.
The fourth scenario provides for a decisive displacement of the balance of power towards Ukraine. This is possible in the event of the fall of the combat spirit of Russian soldiers or when Washington provides more modern weapons to Kyiv, which will accelerate the end of the war in favor of Ukraine.
The most negative scenario, according to the model, allows the continuation of the war until 2160. This will happen if Russia no longer resorts to mobilization and selects a punishment strategy. However, the compilers of the forecast say that the accuracy of such a forecast is small.