Brazil’s economy has returned to pre-pandemic levels, supported by booming terms of trade and robust private sector credit growth, and one of the biggest stimulus packages in emerging markets–nearly 4 percent of GDP in emergency cash transfers alone in 2020.
The country has been hit hard by the pandemic, however. COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 550,000 Brazilians, the second highest death toll worldwide. Renewed lockdowns following a severe second wave and the rollout of vaccinations have helped bring down infections since April, with new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths falling significantly from their peaks. But rates of unemployment and poverty remain high. Inflation too has surged, weighing on the outlook.
Growth is projected to rebound to 5.3 percent in 2021. Sustaining the recovery, however, will require further institutional reforms to raise labor productivity growth and foster private sector-led investment.