“These 50 days of war changed a lot. The most important thing is that the return to the previous situation in Russia, Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian relations and in relations throughout the world in the nearest, at least two decades is impossible. Military actions on The new high level continues for 50 days and is unknown when they are running out. It is already obvious that the number of victims of the Russian military on the territory of Ukraine over the past 50 days passed for 20 thousand people, 50-60 thousand injured. Despite any victims, Putin He continues to throw thousands and thousands of new people in this furnace. ” This was stated in an interview with the publication “Glavred”, ex-adviser to the President of Russia (during Putin’s reign from 2000-2005 – Haqqin.az), a former representative of Russia in the G8, and now the Senior Researcher of the Security Policy Center in Washington , President of the Institute of Economic Analysis Andrey Illarionov.
The influential expert considers two most important factors to solve light on the possible duration of the war in Ukraine:
“The first factor is the one we have already spoken – the ideological state of Putin, his worldview, which does not give any reason to believe that the war in Ukraine will end soon.
The second factor that has allowed Putin to start this war on February 24, 2022, is the presence of the current President of Joseph Bayden in the United States of America, which Putin considers it weak, incapable of real resistance, black and unwaying to send American troops in one form or another to help Ukraine. Baiden’s refusal and from the direction of the US troops to protect Ukraine, and on the use of NATO forces in countering the Russian aggression is the “green light” for Putin’s aggression against Ukraine. If any other president, who was in the history of this country (Reagan, Bush, Trump) (Reagan, Bush, Trump), was in the history of the United States, then such aggression, which we see in the last 50 days, most likely would not have. And even if it started, she would be stopped for several hours.
First, judging by the estimates of military experts, the operation in the east of Ukraine is already going at least a week. And fights there are very fierce. Data on the loss of military equipment is confirmed. However, the fighting has not yet reached the level of intensity that was warned repeatedly and which is expected. Secondly, this military operation will not be the latter, it will not solve the fate of the war in Ukraine. Even if the WWU will be able to repel with big losses a new offensive of Russian troops under raisins and a gulyipol, the war will not end. “
In addition, Andrei Illarionov examines three versions of the war. He commented on the versions of pessimistic, optimistic and realistic scenarios.