The global economy by 2023 will decrease by 1%, which is equivalent to $ 1 trillion, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, follows from the study of the British National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Niesr.
According to Interfax, the organization’s experts also believe that the level of world inflation as a result of the conflict will increase by 2 percentage points in 2023: “Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of raw materials, including titanium, palladium, wheat and corn. Therefore we assume What will strengthen problems with supply chains for sectors using this raw material, including the automotive and aircraft manufacturing and the production of smartphones. “
According to analysts, the costs of new sanctions for the Russian economy will be partially offset by the jump in energy prices, but in general, new restrictive measures will have a negative effect. Russia’s GDP is expected to decrease by 1.5% in the current year and more than 2.5% by the end of 2023. Inflation in the country may exceed 20% already in 2022.
It is noted that the most affected region, taking into account the existing trade relations, and dependence on Russian energy supplies of energy resources may be Europe. At the same time, the war will affect countries with a developing economy less than on the states with developed.
Experts expect that an increase in government-in-law (in Europe – ed.) will contribute to the influx of refugees from Ukraine and will lead to an increase in defense expenditures, which will limit the unfavorable impact on European GDP.