The Kremlin creates the conditions for conducting operations under a foreign flag on the border of the Chernihiv region of Ukraine and in Moldova.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that on February 23, the Operational Command “North” reported that Russian troops are preparing possible operations under the cover in the border regions of the Chernihiv region.
Ukrainian intelligence has already recorded as Russian columns with military equipment without identification marks and personnel dressed in a form similar to Ukrainian, are moving into areas of the borders of the Chernihiv region.
The Ukrainian military believe that the purpose of these operations under the fake flag is an attempt to accuse Ukrainian forces of violating the territorial integrity of an indefinite country, referring, most likely, Belarus.
ISW does not exclude that the Kremlin is preparing attacks under a fake flag to draw Belarus into the war.
Analysts recall that the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said on February 16 that Belarus would enter the war only in the event of an attack from Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus also stated on February 21 that the Belarusian troops observed the increase in Ukrainian forces near its borders.
“ISW continues to evaluate that the attack of Belarus or Russia on the northern Ukrainian regions is very unlikely, but Russia seeks to squeeze Lukashenko or accuse Ukraine of expanding the war in order to undermine the support of Kiev,” analysts emphasize.
In their opinion, such an operation under a fake flag can be aimed at consolidating Ukrainian forces on the northern border with the aim of weakening Ukrainian defense in the east of Ukraine and preparing for counterattacking operations.
In addition, the Kremlin also creates information conditions for the operation under a fake flag in the occupied Transnistria.
On February 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that Ukrainian troops plan to commit armed provocation against Transnistria in the near future. The defense department claimed that Ukrainian forces would change into Russian military uniforms and supposedly arrange a Russian offensive from perspectives in Transnistria. The Government of Moldova refuted the accusations of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“The Ministry of Defense probably sought to raise this false narrative in order to distort the warning of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky by Moldova President Maya Sandu that the Kremlin was preparing provocations in Moldova, and his proposal to help Moldova if the Russian forces in Transnistria will threaten the territory Ukraine, ”the ISW report says