Experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) do not expect from the applications for any further escalation of the war in Ukraine on February 21, the appeal to the Federal Assembly. In his speech, Putin, most likely, will not announce a new wave of mobilization, or any other significant political decisions, they predict.
Last year, Putin postponed his traditional appeal to both chambers of the Russian parliament, probably hoping during him solemnly announced large Russian victories in the war against Ukraine, but this did not happen – as due to the lack of such victories , and in the light of growing criticism towards the Kremlin about the conduct of this war, writes ISW in his next summary.
Putin in the past few months has made a number of non -proceeding performances to commemorate certain commemorative dates and, apparently, decided to confuse his postponed appeal to the Federal Assembly for the first anniversary of Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk. In all likelihood, Putin intends to submit in the new package the measures taken over the past year to integrate the occupied territories in the Russian Federation, presenting them as a fresh achievement, according to ISW.
According to analysts, the Russian military failures in Ukraine still do not give Putin the opportunity to share their successes with the Russian public. After the capture of Severodonetsk in July last year, the Russian military did not manage to achieve a single major prompt success. During the same time, Ukrainian troops were able to free almost 18 thousand square meters. km of the territory. Perhaps Putin chose the date of his message to the Federal Assembly at the expectations that his army would achieve at least tactical success in the Bakhmut area, despite the fact that from July 4, Russian troops at the cost of unimaginable losses were able to occupy only about 500 square meters. km of the territory in this area.
Putin could declare the beginning of another wave of mobilization, although most indicators and expert estimates indicate that he will not do this now.
The Russian army has already abandoned a significant part of its existing military units on enhanced offensive operations in Ukraine, and the shortage of large unweated reserves, in all likelihood, will keep Putin from the announcement of the beginning of a completely new large -scale offensive, ISW experts believe.
Most likely, Putin will continue to speak to the public with small-containing speeches, since the lack of military success in Ukraine deprives him of the opportunity to proclaim or at least promise at least any significant victory.
The persistent defense of the Ukrainians of Bakhmut himself, despite the losses in people and material and technical resources, will not allow Putin to even declare this city on the anniversary of the outbreak of war, which would give him himself, the Russian military and the population of a new hope for victory and possibly possibly , would increase the Kremlin’s readiness to demand more from their citizens, concludes ISW experts.