Russian President Vladimir Putin, perhaps, creates the conditions for further Russian cross-border raids in the northeastern regions of Ukraine in an attempt to continue information operations within the country and press the Ukrainian army to the northern border regions, the next summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said .
experts recall that Putin held a meeting on February 1, which discussed the restoration of infrastructure in Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions after shelling from Ukraine. He noted that the termination of shelling is the task of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Putin’s emphasis on the danger of Ukrainian shelling of border regions is probably pursuing a double goal, the summary is noted. He continues the information operation, the purpose of which is to provide a war in Ukraine as a threat to Russian citizens in order to enlist the internal support of a protracted war, as well as create conditions for the escalation of cross -border raids in order to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces, pressing them to the northeastern border regions.
According to ISW experts, the Russian invasion of Belarus is extremely unlikely, and the ongoing information operation to press the Ukrainian troops to the northern border seems to fail. The threat of cross-border raids from the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions to the north and northeast of Ukraine is probably an attempt to force Kyiv to deploy units in these areas to protect against such attacks, thereby dispersing Ukrainian troops before the likely Russian offensive in the coming months.