Winter weather will not be the reason for the lull in the war in Ukraine and will not create the opportunity to start negotiations. This was stated by experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their report on the situation at the front.
Thus, they denied the opinion of some Western officials that winter will lead to a pause in hostilities and open a window of opportunities for negotiations.
“Autumn and spring mud can slow down a military offensive – just as a malfunction or lack of winter equipment. Some types of military equipment may need to adapt to colder weather, and a lack of equipment or ammunition is really able to lead to a slowdown in the offensive due logical difficulties – but not winter weather, ”say ISW experts.
In their opinion, “Winter can much more damage poorly equipped Russian troops in Ukraine, but well -equipped Ukrainian military is unlikely to stop counterattacks due to the arrival of winter. On the contrary, the frozen soil can simplify the movement of Ukrainian equipment – and it will be easier to do it than in the conditions of autumn-spring thaw “.
ISW experts are sure that if the fighting subsides, then only because of logistics difficulties or the achievement of the climax in several campaigns of both sides. Russian troops on most of the front went on defense and for several months for several months they cannot conduct large -scale offensive operations in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions
ISW in the report writes that “the Russian retreat (in the Kherson region – ed.) will take some more time, and battles will continue throughout the Kherson region.” The authors of the summary conclude that “Ukraine owns the initiative and provides itself with a significant victory in Kherson.” Therefore, any ceasefire, according to experts, will “give the Kremlin the time for him to restore Russian forces.”