Former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, former co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza comments on many topical issues and realities of the post-Karabakh war, including the change of the US administration, its possible moves and new developments.
– Recently, the then US secretary of state nominee (won bipartisan approval in the Senate, and already sworn in as US President Biden’s secretary of state) told his pre-confirmation hearing that as Secretary of State he will “reinvigorate U.S. engagement to find a permanent settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that protects the security of Nagorno-Karabakh”. This includes stepping up the Minsk Group efforts and additional diplomatic work to avoid third-party interference. He definitely meant Turkey as a third party. In another development, US Congressman Adam Schiff urged the US Congress to recognize the independence of the so-called or what he called “Republic of Artsakh” (referring to Nagorno Karabakh). Adam Schiff says the Minsk Group should resume negotiations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He also speaks about the need to reduce the role of Turkey.
– Indeed, during the confirmation hearings in the Senate, Anthony Blinken said that he mentioned the US re-engagement via the OSCE Minsk Group to find a permanent settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Blinken spoke about the prevention of any further interference by third parties. Yes, he certainly meant Turkey.
There are several points to note here. First of all, these hearings themselves are something like an election campaign. I know that well. At one time, the Armenian community was against my confirmation as a US Ambassador to Azerbaijan.
So, during such hearings the Armenian community influences the senators, presses with questions on topics that interest them. They want the final solution to the Karabakh conflict to be made within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. However, if we look at the positions of both Azerbaijan and Russia, Baku and Moscow appear to have made a decision as reflected in the trilateral statement.
Hearings are difficult for any candidate, especially if the nominee knows that many senators, shall we say, work closely with the Armenian community. If he had said something that they did not like, he simply would not have become Secretary of State. So it should be borne in mind that Blinken was actually “throwing words to the wind” (original in Russian “бросать слова на ветер”) [placating, saying what they want to hear]. Yes, “we want to help, we want there to be no war.” This is normal and non-binding stuff .
– What, in your opinion, will be the relationship between Washington and Ankara under the new administration?
– When it comes to Turkey, you have to understand that it has no friends at all in the US Congress. Washington is very unhappy with the fact that Ankara has purchased Russian S-400 missile systems. In the both House and the Senate, they see this as Turkey’s choosing a common course with Russia, and not with NATO and the United States. However, I think they are deeply mistaken.
– Let’s get back to Karabakh, particularly Congressman Adam Schiff’s statement that the US Congress should recognize the independence of what he called “Republic of Artsakh” .
– This is not a surprise (smiles). Congressman Adam Schiff represents an area in California where the Armenian community of the USA live. And he always supports the Armenian side. But this is his opinion, not the policy of the United States, or even not the policy of Congress.
At the same time, of course, we must say that Adam Schiff is an influential congressman. There are other congressmen who think the same way as Schiff. The fact that he mentioned the so-called “Republic of Artsakh” does not matter at all. The US government will never recognize this non-existent entity. Adam Schiff also takes an anti-Turkish position to win support from the Armenian community in the United States.
He wants the OSCE Minsk Group to resume its work. This is the traditional approach of American diplomacy. You cannot publicly say that you object to negotiations that could strengthen the peace process. On the other hand, it is obvious that if someone wants to resume negotiations in the Minsk format, he must also understand the subject of these negotiations, what to talk about.
From the point of view of Mr. Schiff, the Armenian community of the USA, the governments of Armenia and France, this subject matter is the “status” of Nagorno-Karabakh. But according to Baku and Moscow, everything has already been decided, there is no status, and this is reflected in the November 10 document, more precisely there is a status: Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan.
– Do you think that the new US administration will call into question the agreements on Karabakh?
– I don’t think the Biden administration will question these agreements. Now this stuff is simply political games related to elections, hearings in the Senate. This is Washington after all.
Knowing personally President Joe Biden and the new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, I can say with confidence that they will not torpedo the agreement on Karabakh. Yes, there are many people in Washington who believe that these agreements are not in the interests of the United States, since Washington did not play any role in what was achieved and the agreement is a merit of Russia, which is not a friend of the United States.
On the other side, relations with Turkey will be somewhat tense, especially at the beginning of Joseph Biden’s presidential term. As I said, congress and administration insist that Turkey should not have purchased the S-400 systems.
There is also a question about northern Syria, meaning military actions against the Kurds. However, these politicians are simply not aware of what has or is happening on the ground. However, in a few months, relations between Turkey and the United States will improve. In addition, by then there will a full understanding of the importance of the agreements on Karabakh. The original Russian version here. Media.az