The Russian economy has become one of the most dependent on imports from China, losing only to North Korea, the head of the Institute of countries with the transition economy under the Bank of Finland Iikka Korhonen said.
Before the start of the war, in Ukraine, a quarter of goods in the Russian Federation had a quarter of the supply of goods to China from abroad. However, by November, the share of its products in Russian imports increased to 40%.
He believes that this dependence will only intensify. The Adjunct Professor of the Norwegian Institute of Defense Studies Ingrid Opadal agrees with him. According to her, this was the result of the “turning of Russia to Asia.”
However, so far the import of China is unable to replenish the shortage of Western products, Korhonen noted.
“This is especially true for goods that have fallen in the sanctions lists of the EU or the USA. In the future, Chinese companies will be able to replace some things that Russia cannot purchase in the West. But this will take time and will be accompanied by difficulties. As for technologically advanced products, it will China still cannot produce microchips of such a level as Taiwan or South Korea, ”the expert said.
In his opinion, in exchange for continuing trading, Beijing will require something in return, for example, discounts on energy resources. “According to Chinese foreign trade data, we see that they are already buying Russian raw oil by 16-17% cheaper than in other countries. Until 2022 there were no such discounts. That is, Chinese importers have benefited from this situation,” Korhonen added.