The threats of Russian President Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons forces Western countries to analyze the possible actions of Russia. The Pentagon, American nuclear laboratories and intelligence services have been engaged in computer modeling of possible nuclear strikes and their consequences for more than a month to understand how to act the United States, writes The New York Times (NYT). Separate excerpts from the article are given by Moscow Times.
The American publication indicates that this task is complex, since tactical nuclear weapons are of different sizes and power, different means can be used for its delivery. For example, warheads can be installed on Caliber winged missiles or Iskander ballistic missiles, built into an artillery shell or even delivered on a truck.
Their power varies greatly, but the minimum is 10 kilotons in TNT equivalent, according to the Stockholm Institute for Research Problems. The power of the bomb dropped in 1945 on Hiroshima exceeded 15 kilotons. The possible use of a bomb even minimum power in the Ukrainian conflict is “this is the worst that we have seen since the Hiroshima,” said Bloomberg Daryl Kimbal, executive director of the American Association for Arms Control.
As a result of that explosion, buildings in the territory of 12 square meters were destroyed. km, 70,000 people were killed at once and tens of thousands – subsequently from radiation.
Due to the uncertainty associated with the power of the bomb, which can be applied, the nature of the blow itself (this may simply be a demonstration of force on the desert territory, for example, over the Black Sea, a blow to military targets or even settlements), as well as Numerous other factors, the results of computer modeling “differ dramatically,” said Nyt familiar to them by the US official.
Even the wind can be represented by the problem: it can easily attribute the radiation caused by the explosion to Russian territory – and this is one of those risks that, according to Western experts, significantly outweigh the benefits of the use of nuclear weapons. The West will try to pull India to its side, China and other states that so far take a more or less neutral position in relation to Russia.
If Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, he will probably choose a military goal in Ukraine for a demonstrative blow, Bloomberg said on anonymity, a person close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russia has about 1900 units of tactical nuclear weapons. The United States left 230 – after the Cold War, they decided that tactical charges would not bring benefits on the battlefield, conventional weapons are more effective. At the weekend, the former CIA director David Petreus said that if Putin was used by the US tactical nuclear weapons, they will answer not with a nuclear blow, but will destroy all Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine, as well as the Black Sea Fleet.