War of Russia against Ukraine can lead to a reduction in global economy growth for more than 1%. In addition, this year, global inflation due to the war can grow by 2.5%. Such conclusions in their study led to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
According to the study, the economic consequences of a shock caused by war will be different in different regions of the world, but the economies of European countries will be crucial to themselves, especially those bordering Russia or Ukraine. So, the German Institute of World Economy (IFW) reduced the forecast of economic growth in Germany in the current year almost halfway to 2.1%.
According to researchers, a significant economic risk is also the fact that energy resources in the European Union can completely stop from Russia.
Another possible consequence of war – along with a serious danger of the economic crisis in individual countries, the organization called a humanitarian catastrophe with an increase in hunger and poverty in the most disadvantaged regions of the world.
It is noted that the challenge for Europe is also a flow of refugees from Ukraine. These costs for the EU are generally insignificant, for individual states bordering Ukraine, they can become a heavy load.
Also in OECD, it is believed that the long-term consequence of war will be the possible fragmentation of payment systems and the composition of currency reserves: “The exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT system can speed up the creation of alternatives. This, in turn, can lead to a decrease in the effectiveness of a single payment system and role American dollar in financial markets. “