The probability of La-Nini conditions by the end of this year is 60 percent. This is evidenced by the data of the new report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“The latest forecasts of global centers of long-term forecasts of VMO indicate a 55 %probability of a transition from current neutral conditions (neither El-Nino nor La-Ninya) to La-Nini conditions in September 2024. From October 2024 to February 2025 This probability increases to 60 %, while the probability of re -development of El Nino during this period is negligible, ”the press release says.
In the VMO, it is noted that a large-scale cooling of the ocean surface in the central and eastern regions of the equatorial part of the Pacific in combination with changes in the tropical circulation of the atmosphere, namely wind, pressure and precipitation, is associated with the weather. “The consequences of each phenomenon of La-Ninya depend on its intensity, duration, time of year and interaction with other climatic factors. As a rule, La-Ninya has the opposite El-Nigno impact on the climate, especially in tropical regions,” the report says. < /p>
“Since June 2023, we have been observing a long strip of exceptional values of the global temperature of the surface of the land and the sea. Even if the short-term cooling of La-Nigne occurs, it will not change the long-term trajectory of global temperature growth due to the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of heat. , – said VMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo, whose words are given in the report.
According to her, the last nine years have been the warmest in the history of observations, even despite the cooling influence of many years of La Nignya from 2020 to 2023.
“During the past three months, neutral conditions have prevailed-neither El Ninho nor La-Ninya. But we are still faced with widespread extreme weather conditions, including strong heat and destructive precipitation. That is why the initiative is” in advance of warning for Everyone “remains the priority of WMO. The seasonal forecasts of El-Nigno and La-Nigne and the associated effect on climatic models on a global scale are an important tool for early warnings and the adoption of preventive measures,” Saulo said.
El Nigno (or southern oscillation) – fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, which has a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense, El Nigno is this phase in which the area of heated up surface waters shifts to the east.
La-Ninya-an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon, which is a colder analogue of El Nigno.